Multi-Scale CUSUM Tests for Time Dependent Spherical Random Fields

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Caponera, Alessia; Marinucci, Domenico; Vidotto, Anna
• 署名单位: Luiss Guido Carli University; University of Rome Tor Vergata; Sapienza University Rome
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459; 1537-274X
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2026.2639148
• 发表日期: 2026-05-21
• 关键词: climate change; non-stationarity; Space-time processes; Spherical Fourier analysis; gaussian random-fields; covariance; series

摘要

This article investigates the asymptotic behavior of structural break tests in the harmonic domain for time dependent spherical random fields. In particular, we prove a functional central limit theorem result for the fluctuations over time of the sample spherical harmonic coefficients, under the null of isotropy and stationarity; furthermore, we prove consistency of the corresponding CUSUM test, under a broad range of alternatives, including deterministic trend, abrupt change, and a nontrivial power alternative. Our results are then applied to NCEP data on global temperature: our estimates suggest that Climate Change does not simply affect global average temperatures, but also the nature of spatial fluctuations at different scales. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.