An AI-powered Bayesian Generative Modeling Approach for Causal Inference in Observational Studies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Liu, Qiao; Wong, Wing Hung
• 署名单位: Yale University; Yale University; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459; 1537-274X
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2026.2654227
• 发表日期: 2026-04-03
• 页码: 976-987
• 关键词: Bayesian deep learning; Dose-response function; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Potential outcome; treatment effect; propensity score; regression

摘要

Causal inference in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates presents significant challenges. We introduce CausalBGM, an AI-powered Bayesian generative modeling approach that captures the causal relationship among covariates, treatment, and outcome. The core innovation is to estimate the individual treatment effect (ITE) by learning the individual-specific distribution of a low-dimensional latent feature set (e.g., latent confounders) that drives changes in both treatment and outcome. This individualized posterior representation yields estimates of the individual treatment effect (ITE) together with well-calibrated posterior intervals while mitigating confounding effect. CausalBGM is fitted through an iterative algorithm to update the model parameters and the latent features until convergence. This framework leverages the power of AI to capture complex dependencies among variables while adhering to the Bayesian principles. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalBGM achieves superior or competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods, particularly in scenarios with high-dimensional covariates and large-scale datasets. By addressing key limitations of existing methods, CausalBGM emerges as a robust and promising framework for advancing causal inference in a wide range of modern applications. The code for CausalBGM is available at https://github.com/liuq-lab/bayesgm. The document for CausalBGM is available at https://bayesgm.readthedocs.io. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.