Finance without exotic risk

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; La Porta, Rafael; Shleifer, Andrei
• 署名单位: Bocconi University; Brown University; Harvard University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104145
• 发表日期: 2025-11
• 页码: 104145
• 关键词: Earnings growth expectations; Return predictability; factor models; CONTRARIAN INVESTMENT; COMMON-STOCKS; cross-section; asset prices; market value; expectations; returns; explanation; forecasts; models

摘要

We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any cross-sectional differences in required returns. We obtain three results. First, variation in EBRs accounts for a large chunk of cross-sectional return spreads in value, investment, size, and momentum factors. Second, time variation in these spreads is predictable from that in EBRs, holding constant scaled price variables (as proxies for time varying required returns). Third, firm characteristics often seen as capturing risk premia predict disappointment of expectations and low EBRs. Overall, return spreads typically attributed to exotic risk factors are explained by predictable movements in non-rational expectations of firms' earnings growth.