Securing technological leadership? The cost of export controls on firms☆

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Crosignani, Matteo; Han, Lina; Macchiavelli, Marco; Silva, Andre F.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104192
• 发表日期: 2026-01
• 页码: 104192
• 关键词: Geopolitical risk; geoeconomics; Export controls; Decoupling; linkages; shocks

摘要

To safeguard its technological leadership, the U.S. has restricted domestic suppliers from exporting cutting-edge technologies to selected Chinese firms. Domestic firms affected by these export controls halt sales to Chinese customers, as intended, but struggle to establish new relations with alternative customers domestically or in politically aligned regions. Consequently, domestic suppliers experience sizable losses in market capitalization, along with reductions in profitability, employment, and bank lending. Chinese firms are more proactive in reconfiguring supply chains, though not without costs. Overall, export controls impose larger costs on U.S. firms developing the very technologies these policies aim to protect.