What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Santacreu, Ana Maria; Sposi, Michael; Zhang, Jing
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Southern Methodist University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.70081
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; IMPACT; LIBERALIZATION; geography

摘要

We develop a structural framework to identify the sources of cross-state heterogeneity in response to U.S. tariff changes. A unilateral 25-percentage-point U.S. tariff increase across sectors induces consumption changes ranging from -0.8% in Oregon to 2.3% in Montana. This variation stems from the interaction between states' internal comparative advantage and the nation's external comparative advantage. Factor mobility lowers aggregate consumption and reshapes the cross-state impacts by shifting resources toward more distorted states and sectors. Consequently, preferred tariff changes vary systematically across states, necessitating transfers to align regional policy incentives. Foreign retaliation reduces aggregate gains while perpetuating cross-state variation.