Accounting for the Evolution of China's Production and Trade Patterns

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Huang, Hanwei; Ju, Jiandong; Yue, Vivian Z.
• 署名单位: City University of Hong Kong; Tsinghua University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Emory University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.70070
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: comparative advantage; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; TECHNOLOGY; IMPACT; welfare; LIBERALIZATION; specialization; performance; INNOVATION; continuum

摘要

We study the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. Using firm-level microdata, we document how production and exports shifted across industries and within industries across firms. We quantify a Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model with heterogeneous firms to account for these changes. Counterfactuals show capital deepening pushed China's production and exports toward greater capital intensity, while labor-biased productivity growth provided an offsetting force. The model generates an inverted-U pattern in China's trade openness-peaking in the mid-2000s and declining through the 2020s-alongside a continuous rise in the world's exposure to Chinese exports.