Rainfall Inequality, Political Power, and Ethnic Conflict in Africa

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Guariso, Andrea; Rogall, Thorsten
• 署名单位: University of Milano-Bicocca; Uppsala University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20210174
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: civil-war; HORIZONTAL INEQUALITIES; climate; polarization; weather; shocks; MODEL

摘要

How are ethnic inequality and ethnic violence related? We empirically investigate this question using an innovative measure of resource inequality between ethnic groups, based on rainfall in ethnic homelands during the plant-growing season. Our main dataset covers the period 1950-2020 and includes 250 ethnicities located across 43 African countries. Our results indicate that rainfall-based inequality is a strong predictor of ethnic violence and that the link heavily depends on the power relations across ethnic groups. In terms of mechanisms, our results suggest that resource inequality leads to more ethnic conflicts by exacerbating grievances.