Public Employee Pensions and Municipal Insolvency

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Myers, Sean
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag097
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: default risk; Sovereign debt; fiscal-policy; state; liabilities; allocation; maturity

摘要

This paper studies how municipal governments jointly manage spending, credit market borrowing, and a public employee pension system. I model governments as levered investors who must meet non-defaultable pension obligations and may value government spending more than citizens. I quantify the model using data on California cities, including a new record of fiscal emergencies, tax increases required to maintain essential city services. After the financial crisis depleted pension funds, cities engaged in excessive risk-taking: the fiscal emergency option encouraged gambling for resurrection that kept cities vulnerable to shocks well into the recovery. To correct this problem, a savings requirement works better than a restriction on risk-taking or a pension funding requirement. The policy experiments emphasize that effective policies need to target the combined pension and bond finances, as policies that only target one, such as a pension funding requirement, are undermined by endogenous changes to the other.