Unemployment Insurance, Starting Salaries, and Jobs: Evidence from Multi-state Firms

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Dahl, Gordon B.; Knepper, Matthew
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Amazon.com
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag056
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: potential duration; Wage stickiness; SEARCH EVIDENCE; benefits; LABOR; taxation; generosity; EXTENSIONS; liquidity; IMPACT

摘要

We study the labour market effects of permanent 30%-64% reductions on unemployment insurance benefits available in seven states. Leveraging linked firm-establishment data, we find that establishments based on reform states experience employment increases that are 0.8%-1.3% larger than those of the same firm's establishments in other states. Using a similar multi-state firm design, starting salaries are 1.2%-5.5% lower in reform states and posted salaries for the same job fall by 3.2%-3.5%. The negative co-movement of employment and wages after the reform suggests a labour supply shock and mitigates against confounding changes in labour demand driving the results. Our findings are consistent with workers lowering their reservation wages as outside options fall, and employers take advantage of this by offering lower wages and increasing employment.