Identification of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case of Insecticide-Treated Nets

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Mahajan, Aprajit; Michel, Christian; Tarozzi, Alessandro
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Barcelona School of Economics; European University Institute; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag018
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: discrete-choice models; self-control; PRESENT-BIAS; expectations; preferences; retirement; temptation; PSYCHOLOGY; ECONOMICS; BEHAVIOR

摘要

Time-inconsistency may play a central role in explaining inter-temporal behaviour, particularly among poor households. However, little is known about the distribution of time-inconsistent agents, and time-preference parameters are typically not identified in standard dynamic choice models. We formulate a dynamic discrete choice model in an unobservedly heterogeneous population of possibly time-inconsistent agents. We provide conditions under which all population type probabilities and preferences for both time-consistent and sophisticated agents are point-identified and sharp set-identification results for na & iuml;ve and partially sophisticated agents. Estimating the model using data from a health intervention providing insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in rural Odisha, India, we find that about two-thirds of our sample comprises time-inconsistent agents and that both sophisticated and na & iuml;ve agents are considerably present-biased. Counterfactuals show that the under-investment in ITNs attributable to present-bias leads to substantial costs that are about four times the price of an ITN.