Quantifying Supply-Side Climate Policies

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Ahlvik, Lassi; Andersen, Jorgen Juel; Hamang, Jonas Hveding; Harding, Torfinn
• 署名单位: University of Helsinki; BI Norwegian Business School; Kristiania University of Applied Sciences
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag024
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: FOSSIL-FUEL; co2 emissions; carbon taxes; demand; coal; ECONOMICS

摘要

What are the effects of supply-side climate policies in the oil market? We use global company-level data to estimate the impact of 84 reforms of production taxes between 2000 and 2019 on oil production, exploration, and discoveries. We find that higher taxes primarily reduce companies' exploration expenditures and oil discoveries, and also reduce short-term production of unconventional oil. We then quantify the implications for the oil market using a short- and medium-term dynamic model extending until the end of the century. Imposing a global climate royalty surcharge of 20 percentage points on oil producers reduces average annual emissions from oil by 5-7% in the first 5 years, and 9-20% in the medium term. If only OECD countries adopt this policy, 47-73% of the total emission reductions would be offset by increased production in non-OECD countries in the medium term.