Input Sourcing under Climate Risk: Evidence from US Manufacturing Firms

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Blaum, Joaquin; Esposito, Federico; Heise, Sebastian
• 署名单位: Boston University; Fordham University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag031
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: production networks; TRADE; geography; linkages; shocks; TRENDS; time

摘要

We study the effect of risk on how firms organize their supply chains. We use transaction-level data on U.S. manufacturing imports to construct a novel measure of input sourcing risk based on the historical volatility of ocean shipping times. Our measure isolates the unexpected component of shipping times that is induced by weather conditions along more than 331,000 maritime routes. We first document that unexpected shipping delays significantly reduce importers' sales, profits, and employment. We then show that firms actively diversify weather risk by using more routes and foreign suppliers, although their import values decline. To rationalize these findings, we introduce shipping time risk into a general equilibrium model of importing with firm heterogeneity. Our quantitative analysis predicts substantial costs for the U.S. economy associated with supply chain risk.