Coarse Bayesian Updating

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Jakobsen, Alexander M.
• 署名单位: Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag016
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: AXIOMATIC MODEL; probability; JUDGMENT; INFORMATION; style

摘要

Studies have shown that the standard law of belief updating-Bayes' rule-is descriptively invalid in various settings. In this paper, I introduce and analyse a generalization of Bayes' rule-Coarse Bayesian updating-accommodating much of the empirical evidence. I characterize the model axiomatically, show how it generates several well-known biases, and derive its main implications in static and dynamic settings. Each axiom expresses a property of Bayes' rule but, conditional on the others, stops just short of making the agent fully Bayesian. The model employs standard primitives, making it suitable for applications; I demonstrate this by applying it to a standard setting of decision under risk, leading to a close relationship with the Blackwell information ordering and comparative measures of cognitive sophistication and bias.