Destabilizing Capital Flows amid Global Inflation

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Bengui, Julien; Coulibaly, Louphou
• 署名单位: Swiss National Bank (SNB); University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag007
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: monetary-policy; financial crises; exchange-rates; MARKETS; prices; TRADE; externalities; volatility; elasticity

摘要

Over the latest monetary policy tightening cycle, capital has been flowing from low-inflation countries to high-inflation countries. This pattern of capital flows is consistent with the predictions of an open-economy model with nominal rigidities where cost-push shocks generate an inflationary episode and capital flows freely across countries. Yet, by raising demand for domestic non-tradable goods and services, capital inflows cause unwelcome upward pressure on firms' costs in countries most severely hit by these shocks. We find that a reverse pattern of capital flows would have improved the output-inflation trade-off globally, hence requiring a less aggressive monetary tightening in the most severely hit countries and delivering overall welfare gains.