Climate vulnerability and stock price crash risk worldwide

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ni, Xiaoran; Si, Yi; Zhang, Bohui
• 署名单位: Central University of Finance & Economics; Xiamen University; Xi'an Jiaotong University; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2506
• DOI: 10.1057/s41267-025-00831-w
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: MULTINATIONAL-ENTERPRISES; performance; disclosure; ECONOMICS; returns; opacity

摘要

Using a global dataset, we document that an increase in country-level climate vulnerability, measured by exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to the negative effects of climate change, results in an increase in firm-level stock price crash risk. Among these components, adaptive capacity exhibits the most prominent and persistent explanatory power. We confirm our main findings using an instrumental variable approach and exploring two regulatory shocks that tend to generate worldwide or within-country variations in adaptive capacity. In addition, we show that greater climate vulnerability is associated with weaker firm fundamentals, more aggressive bad news hoarding, and narrower institutional ownership breadth, all of which tend to trigger future stock price crashes. Moreover, the main effect varies with institutional or cultural differences across countries. Our overall findings indicate that climate vulnerability has adverse stock market consequences through a pronounced destabilizing effect. These findings highlight the critical role of formal and informal institutions in mitigating and adapting to climate change, an important issue for business operations and policymakers worldwide. International investors and multinational corporations should closely monitor country-level policies and initiatives aimed at enhancing climate resilience when selecting investees and managing global supply chains. Nous appuyant sur un ensemble de donn & eacute;es mondiales, nous d & eacute;montrons qu'une augmentation de la vuln & eacute;rabilit & eacute; climatique au niveau du pays, mesur & eacute;e par l'exposition, la sensibilit & eacute; et la capacit & eacute; d'adaptation aux effets n & eacute;gatifs du changement climatique, entra & icirc;ne une augmentation du risque de krach boursier au niveau de l'entreprise. Parmi ces composantes, la capacit & eacute; d'adaptation pr & eacute;sente le pouvoir explicatif le plus important et persistant. Nous confirmons nos r & eacute;sultats principaux en utilisant une approche bas & eacute;e sur des variables instrumentales, et en explorant deux chocs r & eacute;glementaires qui tendent & agrave; g & eacute;n & eacute;rer des variations intra-pays ou mondiales de la capacit & eacute; d'adaptation. De plus, nous montrons qu'une plus grande vuln & eacute;rabilit & eacute; climatique est associ & eacute;e & agrave; des fondamentaux d'entreprise plus faibles, & agrave; une accumulation plus agressive de mauvaises nouvelles et & agrave; une base d'actionnaires institutionnels plus restreinte, autant de facteurs qui tendent & agrave; d & eacute;clencher des krachs boursiers futurs. En outre, l'impact principal varie en fonction des diff & eacute;rences institutionnelles ou culturelles entre les pays. Nos r & eacute;sultats globaux indiquent que la vuln & eacute;rabilit & eacute; climatique a des cons & eacute;quences n & eacute;gatives sur le march & eacute; boursier en raison d'un effet d & eacute;stabilisateur prononc & eacute;. Ces r & eacute;sultats mettent en lumi & egrave;re le r & ocirc;le essentiel des institutions formelles et informelles dans l'att & eacute;nuation du et l'adaptation au changement climatique - une question importante pour les op & eacute;rations commerciales et les d & eacute;cideurs politiques du monde entier. Les investisseurs internationaux et les entreprises multinationales devraient surveiller de pr & egrave;s les politiques et les initiatives au niveau du pays visant & agrave; renforcer la r & eacute;silience climatique lorsqu'ils g & egrave;rent leurs cha & icirc;nes d'approvisionnement mondiales et choisissent les organismes dans lesquels ils investissent. Utilizando un conjunto de datos global, documentamos que un aumento en la vulnerabilidad clim & aacute;tica a nivel de pa & iacute;s, medida mediante exposici & oacute;n, sensibilidad y capacidad de adaptaci & oacute;n frente a los efectos negativos del cambio clim & aacute;tico, se traduce en un aumento en el riesgo de colapso del precio de las acciones a nivel de empresa. Entre estos componentes, la capacidad de adaptaci & oacute;n muestra el poder explicativo m & aacute;s pronunciado y persistente. Confirmamos nuestros hallazgos principales utilizando un enfoque de variables instrumentales y explorando dos shocks regulatorios que generan variaciones a nivel mundial o dentro de los pa & iacute;ses en la capacidad de adaptaci & oacute;n. Adem & aacute;s, mostramos que una mayor vulnerabilidad clim & aacute;tica est & aacute; asociada con fundamentos corporativos m & aacute;s d & eacute;biles, un ocultamiento m & aacute;s agresivo de malas noticias y una menor amplitud de la propiedad institucional, todos los cuales tienden a desencadenar futuros colapsos en los precios de las acciones. Asimismo, el efecto principal var & iacute;a seg & uacute;n las diferencias institucionales o culturales entre pa & iacute;ses. Nuestros hallazgos generales indican que la vulnerabilidad clim & aacute;tica tiene consecuencias adversas en el mercado accionario a trav & eacute;s de un efecto desestabilizador pronunciado. Estos resultados destacan el papel cr & iacute;tico de las instituciones formales e informales en mitigar y adaptarse al cambio clim & aacute;tico, un aspecto cr & iacute;tico para las operaciones empresariales y los responsables de pol & iacute;ticas en todo el mundo. Los inversores internacionales y las corporaciones multinacionales deber & iacute;an supervisar estrechamente las pol & iacute;ticas e iniciativas a nivel de pa & iacute;s orientadas a mejorar la resiliencia clim & aacute;tica al seleccionar empresas en las que invertir y gestionar cadenas de suministro globales. Usando um conjunto de dados global, documentamos que um aumento na vulnerabilidade clim & aacute;tica em n & iacute;vel nacional, medido pela exposi & ccedil;& atilde;o, sensibilidade e capacidade adaptativa aos efeitos negativos de mudan & ccedil;as clim & aacute;ticas, resulta em um aumento no risco de queda abrupta no pre & ccedil;o de a & ccedil;& otilde;es no n & iacute;vel da firma. Entre esses componentes, a capacidade adaptativa apresenta poder explicativo mais proeminente e persistente. Confirmamos nossas principais descobertas utilizando uma abordagem com vari & aacute;vel instrumental e explorando dois choques regulat & oacute;rios que tendem a gerar varia & ccedil;& otilde;es globais ou intrapa & iacute;ses na capacidade adaptativa. Al & eacute;m disso, mostramos que uma maior vulnerabilidade clim & aacute;tica est & aacute; associada a mais fracos fundamentos da empresa, maior reten & ccedil;& atilde;o de m & aacute;s not & iacute;cias agressivas e menor amplitude de propriedade institucional, todos fatores que tendem a desencadear futuras quedas nos pre & ccedil;os de a & ccedil;& otilde;es. Ademais, o efeito principal varia de acordo com diferen & ccedil;as institucionais ou culturais entre pa & iacute;ses. Nossas descobertas gerais indicam que a vulnerabilidade clim & aacute;tica tem consequ & ecirc;ncias adversas para o mercado de a & ccedil;& otilde;es por meio de um pronunciado efeito desestabilizador. Essas descobertas destacam o papel cr & iacute;tico de institui & ccedil;& otilde;es formais e informais na mitiga & ccedil;& atilde;o e adapta & ccedil;& atilde;o a mudan & ccedil;as clim & aacute;ticas, uma quest & atilde;o importante para opera & ccedil;& otilde;es empresariais e formuladores de pol & iacute;ticas em todo o mundo. Investidores internacionais e empresas multinacionais devem monitorar de perto pol & iacute;ticas e iniciativas em n & iacute;vel nacional voltadas para o fortalecimento de resili & ecirc;ncia clim & aacute;tica ao selecionar investimentos e gerenciar cadeias de suprimentos globais. 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