Building Reputation: State-Sponsored Rebellions and Transnational Identities

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Mercier, Marion; Silve, Arthur; Tremblay-Auger, Benjamin
• 署名单位: Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite PSL; Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Laval University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvag023
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: PRINCIPAL-AGENT ANALYSIS; civil-war; HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION; ETHNIC-IDENTITY; CONFLICT THEORY; Data set; support; VIOLENCE; COMPETITION; COMMITMENT

摘要

States sometimes back rebellions abroad to signal resolve. We study this reputation-building logic in international relations, focusing on co-ethnic links between countries as an objective source of variation in a state's incentives to demonstrate resolve. We formally derive two interconnected predictions from the mechanism: (a) a state is more likely to endorse the uprising of a foreign group when facing a larger audience, resulting in (b) greater political inclusion for the group. We build a comprehensive panel dataset of co-ethnic rebellion sponsorship, and find evidence consistent with both predictions.