Cross-Border M&A Flows, Economic Growth, and Foreign Exchange Rates

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Riddiough, Steven J.; Zhang, Huizhong
• 署名单位: University of Toronto; University of Toronto; Monash University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454; 1465-7368
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhaf109
• 发表日期: 2026-01-29
• 关键词: F31; E22; E32; G12; G15; G34; term structure; Currency risk; stock returns; capital flows; long-run; INFORMATION; MARKET; monetary; expectations; mergers

摘要

We extract information about future economic conditions from firms' cross-border merger and acquisition announcements, and show it predicts changes in relative economic growth rates and foreign exchange rate returns. We find the predictability is driven by the acquisition decisions of domestic firms, which signal turning points in local economic growth. The findings are motivated by a simple model of exchange rate determination with heterogeneous expectations and support the theorized relationship between foreign exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. The results provide new tools for policy makers seeking to predict economic activity and offer global investors a novel source of portfolio diversification.