A Flash in the Pan(Demic)? Migration Risks and Municipal Bonds

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gustafson, Matthew; Haslag, Peter; Weagley, Daniel; Ye, Zihan
• 署名单位: Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Vanderbilt University; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.02674
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Municipal bonds; Covid-19; migration; work-from-home; Remote work

摘要

We show that migration induced by the COVID-19 pandemic significantly predicts changes in municipal bond yields. Negative migration shocks have made debt more expensive, especially in the areas and bonds most exposed to the work-from-home (WFH) transition. Over the full sample, a one-standard-deviation increase in COVID period outmigration predicts an approximate 4.5-basis-point rise in municipal bond yields, after controlling for a range of local economic factors including state-or core-based statistical area (CBSA)-year fixed effects. This effect is 40% larger for areas in the top decile of WFH exposure and approximately twice as large for transportation-backed bonds. Moreover, areas containing the most exposed bonds (i.e., those with out-migration and high WFH exposure) also experience relatively large post-COVID declines in municipal revenue. Overall, our results suggest that investors have changed their estimates of the level or uncertainty of municipalities' future cash flows, especially for areas and bonds most exposed to the transition toward remote work.