Disruptive Timing

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chu, Leon Yang; Li, Guang; Wu, Andy; Wu, Brian
• 署名单位: Queens University - Canada; Harvard University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.01734
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: disruptive innovation; strategic timing; competitive strategy; game theory; TECHNOLOGY

摘要

This study examines the role of strategic timing in disruptive innovation. We construct a model where an entrant decides when to enter with a potentially disruptive technology and the incumbent determines whether and when to switch from its existing technology. By accounting for endogenous firm-specific learning alongside exogenous technological improvement, our model highlights the critical role of timing in shaping disruption. First, an entrant's strategic timing-whether to enter early or delay entry-can cause disruption by deferring the timing of the incumbent's response or deterring it altogether. Second, we identify conditions where incumbents, even those unable to initially mount a response, can later switch to the disruptive technology and coexist with an entrant. Based on these insights, we propose a typology of five distinct disruption types- Perfect, Postponed, Passing, Phased, and Partial-that expands the traditional understanding of disruption beyond the often-studied perfect cases to comprehend transient and mixed cases as well. Our theory of disruptive timing integrates literature on strategic timing and disruptive innovation to offer a new perspective for scholars and actionable insights for practitioners.