BAYESIAN ANALYSES FOR A MULTIPLE CAPTURE RECAPTURE MODEL

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: SMITH, PJ
• 刊物名称: BIOMETRIKA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0006-3444
• 发表日期: 1991
• 页码: 399407
• 关键词: N-ESTIMATORS; BINOMIAL-DISTRIBUTION; epidemiological data; EMPIRICAL BAYES; inference

摘要

In multiple capture-recapture surveys, the probability of capture can vary between sampling occasions. The model accounting for this variation is known as M(t). Bayes, empirical Bayes, and Bayes empirical Bayes solutions are given to the problems of interval estimation, decision making, and point estimation of the population size N. When the number of sampling occasions is small to moderate and the number of recaptured units observed on each sampling occasion is moderate, estimates obtained from empirical Bayes and Bayes empirical Bayes methods compare closely to Bayesian methods using a reference prior distribution for the capture probabilities. However, when the number of sampling occasions is large and the number of recaptured units observed on each sampling occasion is small, inferences obtained using different reference priors can differ considerably.