Predictive accuracy of covariates for event times

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chen, Li; Lin, D. Y.; Zeng, Donglin
• 署名单位: University of Kentucky; University of Kentucky; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
• 刊物名称: BIOMETRIKA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0006-3444
• DOI: 10.1093/biomet/ass018
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 615630
• 关键词: semiparametric transformation models; explained variation; survival

摘要

We propose a graphical measure, the generalized negative predictive function, to quantify the predictive accuracy of covariates for survival time or recurrent event times. This new measure characterizes the event-free probabilities over time conditional on a thresholded linear combination of covariates and has direct clinical utility. We show that this function is maximized at the set of covariates truly related to event times and thus can be used to compare the predictive accuracy of different sets of covariates. We construct nonparametric estimators for this function under right censoring and prove that the proposed estimators, upon proper normalization, converge weakly to zero-mean Gaussian processes. To bypass the estimation of complex density functions involved in the asymptotic variances, we adopt the bootstrap approach and establish its validity. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed methods perform well in practical situations. Two clinical studies are presented.