Large-scale model selection in misspecified generalized linear models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Demirkaya, Emre; Feng, Yang; Basu, Pallavi; Lv, Jinchi
• 署名单位: University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; New York University; Indian School of Business (ISB); University of Southern California
• 刊物名称: BIOMETRIKA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0006-3444
• DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asab005
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 123136
• 关键词: maximum-likelihood-estimation; Akaike Information Criterion; variable selection; Cross-validation

摘要

Model selection is crucial both to high-dimensional learning and to inference for contemporary big data applications in pinpointing the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate interpretable models. Most existing work implicitly assumes that the models are correctly specified or have fixed dimensionality, yet both model misspecification and high dimensionality are prevalent in practice. In this paper, we exploit the framework of model selection principles under the misspecified generalized linear models presented in , and investigate the asymptotic expansion of the posterior model probability in the setting of high-dimensional misspecified models. With a natural choice of prior probabilities that encourages interpretability and incorporates the Kullback-Leibler divergence, we suggest using the high-dimensional generalized Bayesian information criterion with prior probability for large-scale model selection with misspecification. Our new information criterion characterizes the impacts of both model misspecification and high dimensionality on model selection. We further establish the consistency of covariance contrast matrix estimation and the model selection consistency of the new information criterion in ultrahigh dimensions under some mild regularity conditions. Our numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed method enjoys improved model selection consistency over its main competitors.