Birth rates and the interwar business cycles
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Galbraith, VL; Thomas, DS
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
ISSN/ISSBN：
0162-1459
DOI：
10.2307/2278953
发表日期：
1941
页码：
465-476
关键词：
摘要：
With the onset of World War II, the experience of the 2 decades separating it from the first makes possible the only analysis for some time to come of the normal impact of business cycles upon birth rates. Data more suitable than any formerly used were provided by computing maternal frequencies for each order of birth separately within each quinquennial age group of women in the reproductive period. These frequencies were summed for all age groups so as to give a total for each order of birth without regard to the age of the mother. By correlating per cent deviations from fitted trends it was found that: (i) the correlation between business cycle and total births was 0.8, (ii) first births are affected about equally by business cycle and marriage rate, (iii) from 2d through 5th and subsequent births, business cycle is correlated with birth rate significantly though in diminishing magnitude. The conclusion seems inescapable that, during the last 2 decades, depressions have checked marriages and birth rates of all orders, and that the birth control movement has penetrated deep into the lower income, occupational and educational classes.