Subjective likelihood for the assessment of trends in the ocean's mixed-layer depth
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Rappold, Ana Grohovac; Lavine, Michael; Lozier, Susan
署名单位：
Duke University; United States Environmental Protection Agency; Duke University
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
ISSN/ISSBN：
0162-1459
DOI：
10.1198/016214507000000761
发表日期：
2007
页码：
771-780
关键词：
摘要：
This article describes a Bayesian statistical analysis of long-term changes in the depth of the ocean's mixed layer. The data are thermal profiles recorded by ships. For these data, there is no good sampling model and thus no obvious likelihood function. Our approach is to elicit posterior distributions for training data directly from the expert. We then infer the likelihood function and use it on large datasets.