Estimating incumbency advantage and its variation, as an example of a before-after study

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gelman, Andrew; Huang, Zaiying
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Columbia University; New York Times
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1198/016214507000000626
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 437-446
• 关键词: Elections; VOTE

摘要

Incumbency advantage is one of the most widely studied features in American legislative elections. In this article we construct and implement an estimate that allows incumbency advantage to vary between individual incumbents. This model predicts that open-seat elections will be less variable than those with incumbents running, an observed empirical pattern that is not explained by previous models. We apply our method to the U.S. House of Representatives in the twentieth century. Our estimate of the overall pattern of incumbency advantage over time is similar to previous estimates (although slightly lower), and we also find a pattern of increasing variation. More generally, our multilevel model represents a new method for estimating effects in before-after studies.