Adversarial Risk Analysis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rios Insua, Insua; Rios, Jesus; Banks, David
• 署名单位: Universidad Rey Juan Carlos; Duke University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1198/jasa.2009.0155
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 841-854
• 关键词: subjective-probability

摘要

Applications in counterterrorism and corporate competition have led to the development of new methods for the analysis of decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. This field represents a combination of statistical risk analysis and game theory, and is sometimes called adversarial risk analysis. In this article, we describe several formulations of adversarial risk problems, and provide a framework that extends traditional risk analysis' tools, such as influence diagrams and probabilistic reasoning, to adversarial problems. We also discuss file research challenges that arise when dealing with these models, illustrate the ideas with examples from business, and point out releveance to national defense.