Bayesian Nonparametric Modeling of Higher Order Markov Chains

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sarkar, Abhra; Dunson, David B.
• 署名单位: Duke University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2015.1115763
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1791-1803
• 关键词: LONGITUDINAL DATA-ANALYSIS; unknown number; components; discrete; mixtures

摘要

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric methodology based on conditional tensor factorizations which can characterize any transition probability with a specified maximal order. The methodology selects the important lags and captures higher order interactions among the lags, while also facilitating calculation of Bayes factors for a variety of hypotheses of interest. We Design efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior computation, allowing for uncertainty in the set of important lags to be included and in the nature and order of the serial dependence. The methods are illustrated using simulation experiments and real world applications. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.