Statistical Significance and the Dichotomization of Evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: McShane, Blakeley B.; Gal, David
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2017.1289846
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 885-895
• 关键词: P-VALUES; significance tests; inference

摘要

In light of recent concerns about reproducibility and replicability, the ASA issued a Statement on tanstical Significance and p-values aimed at those who are not primarily statisticians. While the ASA Statement notes that statistical significance and p-values are commonly misused and misinterpreted, it does not discuss and document broader implications of these errors for the interpretation of evidence. In this article, we review research on how applied researchers who are not primarily statisticians misuse and misinterpret p-values in practice and how this can lead to errors in the interpretation of evidence. We also present new data showing, perhaps surprisingly, that researchers who are primarily statisticians are also prone to misusei and misinterpret, p-values thus resulting in similar errors. In particular, we show that statisticians tend to interpret evidence dichotomously based on whether or not a p-value crosses the conventional 0.05 threshold for statistical significance, We discuss implications and offer recommendations.