Inverse Probability Weighted Estimation of Risk Under Representative Interventions in Observational Studies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Young, Jessica G.; Logan, Roger W.; Robins, James M.; Hernan, Miguel A.
• 署名单位: Harvard University; Harvard Medical School; Harvard Pilgrim Health Care; Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2018.1469993
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 938-947
• 关键词: CAUSAL; inference; models

摘要

Researchers are often interested in using observational data to estimate the effect on a health outcome of maintaining a continuous treatment within a prespecified range over time, for example, always exercise at least 30 minutes per day. There may be many precise interventions that could achieve this range. In this article, we consider representative interventions. These are special cases of random dynamic interventions: interventions under which treatment at each time is assigned according to a random draw from a distribution that may depend on a subject's measured past. Estimators of risk under representative interventions on a time-varying treatment have previously been described based on g-estimation of structural nested cumulative failure time models. In this article, we consider an alternative approach based on inverse probability weighting (IPW) of marginal structural models. In particular, we show that the risk under a representative intervention on a time-varying continuous treatment can be consistently estimated via computationally simple IPW methods traditionally used for deterministic static (i.e., nonrandom and nondynamic) interventions for binary treatments. We present an application of IPW in this setting to estimate the 28-year risk of coronary heart disease under various representative interventions on lifestyle behaviors in the Nurses' Health Study. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.