Limits to Human Life Span Through Extreme Value Theory

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Einmahl, Jesson J.; Einmahl, John H. J.; de Haan, Laurens
• 署名单位: Tilburg University; Tilburg University; Tilburg University; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Universidade de Lisboa
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2018.1537912
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1075-1080
• 关键词: mortality

摘要

There is no scientific consensus on the fundamental question whether the probability distribution of the human life span has a finite endpoint or not and, if so, whether this upper limit changes over time. Our study uses a unique dataset of the ages at death-in days-of all (about 285,000) Dutch residents, born in the Netherlands, who died in the years 1986-2015 at a minimum age of 92 years and is based on extreme value theory, the coherent approach to research problems of this type. Unlike some other studies, we base our analysis on the configuration of thousands of mortality data of old people, not just the few oldest old. We find compelling statistical evidence that there is indeed an upper limit to the life span of men and to that of women for all the 30 years we consider and, moreover, that there are no indications of trends in these upper limits over the last 30 years, despite the fact that the number of people reaching high age (say 95 years) was almost tripling. We also present estimates for the endpoints, for the force of mortality at very high age, and for the so-called perseverance parameter. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.