Crop Yield Prediction Using Bayesian Spatially Varying Coefficient Models with Functional Predictors

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Park, Yeonjoo; Li, Bo; Li, Yehua
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas at San Antonio; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of California System; University of California Riverside
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2022.2123333
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 70-83
• 关键词: climate data; regression; temperature; impacts; maize

摘要

Reliable prediction for crop yield is crucial for economic planning, food security monitoring, and agricultural risk management. This study aims to develop a crop yield forecasting model at large spatial scales using meteorological variables closely related to crop growth. The influence of climate patterns on agricultural productivity can be spatially inhomogeneous due to local soil and environmental conditions. We propose a Bayesian spatially varying functional model (BSVFM) to predict county-level corn yield for five Midwestern states, based on annual precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature trajectories modeled as multivariate functional predictors. The proposed model accommodates spatial correlation and measurement errors of functional predictors, and respects the spatially heterogeneous relationship between the response and associated predictors by allowing the functional coefficients to vary over space. The model also incorporates a Bayesian variable selection device to further expand its capacity to accommodate spatial heterogeneity. The proposed method is demonstrated to outperform other highly competitive methods in corn yield prediction, owing to the flexibility of allowing spatial heterogeneity with spatially varying coefficients in our model. Our study provides further insights into understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield. for this article are available online.