Leveraging Weather Dynamics in Insurance Claims Triage Using Deep Learning

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Shi, Peng; Zhang, Wei; Shi, Kun
• 署名单位: University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Northern Illinois University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2024.2308314
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 825-838
• 关键词: prediction; medicine; mixture

摘要

In property insurance claims triage, insurers often use static information to assess the severity of a claim and to identify the subsequent actions. We hypothesize that the pattern of weather conditions throughout the course of a loss event is predictive of the insured losses, and hence appropriate use of weather dynamics improves the operation of insurers' claim management. To test this hypothesis, we propose a deep learning method to incorporate dynamic weather information in the predictive modeling of the insured losses for reported claims. The proposed method features a hierarchical network architecture to address the challenges in claims triage due to the nature of weather dynamics. In the empirical analysis, we examine a portfolio of hail damage property insurance claims obtained from a major U.S. insurance carrier. When supplemented by dynamic weather information, the deep learning method exhibits substantial improvement in the hold-out predictive performance. We further design a cost-conscious decision strategy for triaging claims using the probabilistic forecasts of the insurance claim amounts. We show that leveraging weather dynamics in claims triage leads to a reduction of up to 9% and 6% in operational costs compared to when the triaging decision is based on forecasts without any weather information and with only static weather information, respectively. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.