A LOGIC OF PROBABILITY, WITH APPLICATION TO THE FOUNDATIONS OF STATISTICS
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
VOVK, VG
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
ISSN/ISSBN：
1369-7412
发表日期：
1993
页码：
317-351
关键词：
摘要：
A simple example shows that the classical theory of probability implies more than one can deduce via Kolmogorov's calculus of probability. Developing Dawid's ideas I propose a new calculus of probability which is free from this drawback. This calculus naturally leads to a new interpretation of probability. I argue that attempts to create a general empirical theory of probability should be abandoned and we should content ourselves with the logic of probability establishing relations between probabilistic theories and observations. My approach to the logic of probability is based on a variant of Ville's principle of the excluded gambling strategy. In addition to the classical theory of probability this approach is applied to the probabilistic theories provided by the problem of testing validity of probability forecasts and by statistical models.