On the time to extinction in recurrent epidemics

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Nåsell, I
• 署名单位: Royal Institute of Technology
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1369-7412
• DOI: 10.1111/1467-9868.00178
• 发表日期: 1999
• 页码: 309-330
• 关键词: stationary

摘要

An approximation is derived for the expected time to extinction in a stochastic model for recurrent epidemics. Numerical illustrations indicate that the approximation is crude but that it has the correct order of magnitude. The quasi-stationary distribution plays an important role in the derivation. Approximations for the critical community size and for the persistence threshold are derived. Comments are made on the classical study by Bartlett (1956-1960).