On-line inference for hidden Markov models via particle filters

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fearnhead, P; Clifford, P
• 署名单位: Lancaster University; University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1369-7412
• DOI: 10.1111/1467-9868.00421
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 887-899
• 关键词: chain monte-carlo; State estimation; systems

摘要

We consider the on-line Bayesian analysis of data by using a hidden Markov model, where inference is tractable conditional on the history of the state of the hidden component. A new particle filter algorithm is introduced and shown to produce promising results when analysing data of this type. The algorithm is similar to the mixture Kalman filter but uses a different resampling algorithm. We prove that this resampling algorithm is computationally efficient and optimal, among unbiased resampling algorithms, in terms of minimizing a squared error loss function. In a practical example, that of estimating break points from well-log data, our new particle filter outperforms two other particle filters, one of which is the mixture Kalman filter, by between one and two orders of magnitude.