Estimation of Husler-Reiss distributions and Brown-Resnick processes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Engelke, Sebastian; Malinowski, Alexander; Kabluchko, Zakhar; Schlather, Martin
• 署名单位: University of Lausanne; University of Gottingen; University of Mannheim; Ulm University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1369-7412
• DOI: 10.1111/rssb.12074
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 239-265
• 关键词: spatial extremes; random vectors; MULTIVARIATE; MODEL; inference; VALUES

摘要

Estimation of extreme value parameters from observations in the max-domain of attraction of a multivariate max-stable distribution commonly uses aggregated data such as block maxima. Multivariate peaks-over-threshold methods, in contrast, exploit additional information from the non-aggregated 'large' observations. We introduce an approach based on peaks over thresholds that provides several new estimators for processes eta in the max-domain of attraction of the frequently used Husler-Reiss model and its spatial extension: Brown-Resnick processes. The method relies on increments eta(.) - eta t(0)/conditional on eta t(0)/exceeding a high threshold, where t(0) is a fixed location. When the marginals are standardized to the Gumbel distribution, these increments asymptotically form a Gaussian process resulting in computationally simple estimates of the Husler-Reiss parameter matrix and particularly enables parametric inference for Brown-Resnick processes based on (high dimensional) multivariate densities. This is a major advantage over composite likelihood methods that are commonly used in spatial extreme value statistics since they rely only on bivariate densities. A simulation study compares the performance of the new estimators with other commonly used methods. As an application, we fit a non-isotropic Brown-Resnick process to the extremes of 12-year data of daily wind speed measurements.