Quantile spectral analysis for locally stationary time series

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Birr, Stefan; Volgushev, Stanislav; Kley, Tobias; Dette, Holger; Hallin, Marc
• 署名单位: Ruhr University Bochum; University of Toronto; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Universite Libre de Bruxelles
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1369-7412
• DOI: 10.1111/rssb.12232
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1619-1643
• 关键词: Adaptive Estimation; NONSTATIONARY; dependence; models; Periodogram

摘要

Classical spectral methods are subject to two fundamental limitations: they can account only for covariance-related serial dependences, and they require second-order stationarity. Much attention has been devoted lately to quantile-based spectral methods that go beyond covariance-based serial dependence features. At the same time, covariance-based methods relaxing stationarity into much weaker local stationarity conditions have been developed for a variety of time series models. Here, we combine those two approaches by proposing quantile-based spectral methods for locally stationary processes. We therefore introduce a time varying version of the copula spectra that have been recently proposed in the literature, along with a suitable local lag window estimator. We propose a new definition of local strict stationarity that allows us to handle completely general non-linear processes without any moment assumptions, thus accommodating our quantile-based concepts and methods. We establish a central limit theorem for the new estimators and illustrate the power of the proposed methodology by means of a simulation study. Moreover, in two empirical studies (namely of the Standard & Poor's 500 series and a temperature data set recorded in Hohenpeissenberg), we demonstrate that the new approach detects important variations in serial dependence structures both across time and across quantiles. Such variations remain completely undetected and are actually undetectable, via classical covariance-based spectral methods.