Robustness, model checking, and hierarchical models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cabral, Rafael; Bolin, David; Rue, Havard
• 署名单位: King Abdullah University of Science & Technology
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1369-7412
• DOI: 10.1093/jrsssb/qkae107
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 632-652
• 关键词: approximate bayesian-inference; 2nd levels; sensitivity; FIELDS

摘要

Model checking is essential to evaluate the adequacy of statistical models and the validity of inferences drawn from them. Particularly, hierarchical models such as latent Gaussian models (LGMs) pose unique challenges as it is difficult to check assumptions on the latent parameters. Diagnostic statistics are often used to quantify the degree to which a model fit deviates from the observed data. We construct diagnostic statistics by (a) defining an alternative model with relaxed assumptions and (b) deriving the diagnostic statistic most sensitive to discrepancies induced by this alternative model. We also promote a workflow for model criticism that combines model checking with subsequent robustness analysis. As a result, we obtain a general recipe to check assumptions in hierarchical models and the impact of these assumptions on the results. We demonstrate the ideas by assessing the latent Gaussianity assumption, a crucial but often overlooked assumption in LGMs. We illustrate the methods via examples utilizing Stan and provide functions for easy usage of the methods for general models fitted through R-INLA.