CALIBRATING A LARGE COMPUTER EXPERIMENT SIMULATING RADIATIVE SHOCK HYDRODYNAMICS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gramacy, Robert B.; Bingham, Derek; Holloway, James Paul; Grosskopf, Michael J.; Kuranz, Carolyn C.; Rutter, Erica; Trantham, Matt; Drake, R. Paul
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; Simon Fraser University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1932-6157
• DOI: 10.1214/15-AOAS850
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1141-1168
• 关键词: gaussian process models; prediction; emulators; search; DESIGN

摘要

We consider adapting a canonical computer model calibration apparatus, involving coupled Gaussian process (GP) emulators, to a computer experiment simulating radiative shock hydrodynamics that is orders of magnitude larger than what can typically be accommodated. The conventional approach calls for thousands of large matrix inverses to evaluate the likelihood in an MCMC scheme. Our approach replaces that costly ideal with a thrifty take on essential ingredients, synergizing three modern ideas in emulation, calibration and optimization: local approximate GP regression, modularization, and mesh adaptive direct search. The new methodology is motivated both by necessity-considering our particular application-and by recent trends in the supercomputer simulation literature. A synthetic data application allows us to explore the merits of several variations in a controlled environment and, together with results on our motivating real-data experiment, lead to noteworthy insights into the dynamics of radiative shocks as well as the limitations of the calibration enterprise generally.