HETEROGENEOUS TREATMENT AND SPILLOVER EFFECTS UNDER CLUSTERED NETWORK INTERFERENCE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bargagli-Stoffi, Falco J.; Tortu, Costanza; Forastiere, Laura
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna; Yale University
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1932-6157
• DOI: 10.1214/24-AOAS1913
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 28-55
• 关键词: rainfall insurance; rural-areas; causal

摘要

The bulk of causal inference studies rule out the presence of interference between units. However, in many real-world scenarios, units are interconnected by social, physical, or virtual ties, and the effect of the treatment can spill from one unit to other connected individuals in the network. In this paper, we develop a machine learning method that uses tree-based algorithms and a Horvitz-Thompson estimator to assess the heterogeneity of treatment and spillover effects with respect to individual, neighborhood, and network characteristics in the context of clustered networks and interference within clusters. The proposed network causal tree (NCT) algorithm has several advantages. First, it allows the investigation of the heterogeneity of the treatment effect, avoiding potential bias due to the presence of interference. Second, understanding the heterogeneity of both treatment and spillover effects can guide policymakers in scaling up interventions, designing targeting strategies, and increasing cost-effectiveness. We investigate the performance of our NCT method using a Monte Carlo simulation study and illustrate its application to assess the heterogeneous effects of information sessions on the uptake of a new weather insurance policy in rural China.