A representation of partially ordered preferences

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Seidenfeld, T; Schervish, MJ; Kadane, JB
• 署名单位: Carnegie Mellon University
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0090-5364
• 发表日期: 1995
• 页码: 2168-2217
• 关键词: state-dependent utilities; shared preferences; probabilities; consensus

摘要

This essay considers decision-theoretic foundations for robust Bayesian statistics. We modify the approach of Ramsey, de Finetti, Savage and Anscombe and Aumann in giving axioms for a theory of robust preferences. We establish that preferences which satisfy axioms for robust preferences can be represented by a set of expected utilities. Tn the presence of two axioms relating to state-independent utility, robust preferences are represented by a set of probability/utility pairs, where the utilities are almost state-independent (in a sense which we make precise). Our goal is to focus on preference alone and to extract whatever probability and/or utility information is contained in the preference relation when that-is merely a partial order. This is in contrast,vith the usual approach to Bayesian robustness that begins with a class of ''priors'' or ''likelihoods,'' and a single loss function, in order to derive preferences from these probability/utility assumptions.