Q-LEARNING WITH CENSORED DATA

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Goldberg, Yair; Kosorok, Michael R.
• 署名单位: University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0090-5364
• DOI: 10.1214/12-AOS968
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 529-560
• 关键词: 2-stage randomization designs; survival distributions; regression

摘要

We develop methodology for a multistage decision problem with flexible number of stages in which the rewards are survival times that are subject to censoring. We present a novel Q-learning algorithm that is adjusted for censored data and allows a flexible number of stages. We provide finite sample bounds on the generalization error of the policy learned by the algorithm, and show that when the optimal Q-function belongs to the approximation space, the expected survival time for policies obtained by the algorithm converges to that of the optimal policy. We simulate a multistage clinical trial with flexible number of stages and apply the proposed censored-Q-learning algorithm to find individualized treatment regimens. The methodology presented in this paper has implications in the design of personalized medicine trials in cancer and in other life-threatening diseases.