NONPARAMETRIC IMPLIED LEVY DENSITIES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Qin, Likuan; Todorov, Viktor
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0090-5364
• DOI: 10.1214/18-AOS1703
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1025-1060
• 关键词: time expansions; OPTION PRICES; calibration; volatility; models; asymptotics; inference; returns

摘要

This paper develops a nonparametric estimator for the Levy density of an asset price, following an Ito semimartingale, implied by short-maturity options. The asymptotic setup is one in which the time to maturity of the available options decreases, the mesh of the available strike grid shrinks and the strike range expands. The estimation is based on aggregating the observed option data into nonparametric estimates of the conditional characteristic function of the return distribution, the derivatives of which allow to infer the Fourier transform of a known transform of the Levy density in a way which is robust to the level of the unknown diffusive volatility of the asset price. The Levy density estimate is then constructed via Fourier inversion. We derive an asymptotic bound for the integrated squared error of the estimator in the general case as well as its probability limit in the special Levy case. We further show rate optimality of our Levy density estimator in a minimax sense. An empirical application to market index options reveals relative stability of the left tail decay during high and low volatility periods.