THE NUMERAIRE E-VARIABLE AND REVERSE INFORMATION PROJECTION

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Larsson, Martin; Ramdas, Aaditya; Ruf, Johannes
• 署名单位: Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0090-5364
• DOI: 10.1214/24-AOS2487
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1015-1043
• 关键词: neyman-pearson lemma; time-uniform; E-values; THEOREM

摘要

We consider testing a composite null hypothesis P against a point alternative Q using e-variables, which are nonnegative random variables X such that E-P[X] <= 1 for every P is an element of P. This paper establishes a fundamental result: under no conditions whatsoever on P or Q, there exists a special evariable X* that we call the numeraire, which is strictly positive and satisfies E-Q[X/X*] <= 1 for every other e-variable X. In particular, X* is log-optimal in the sense that E-Q[log(X/X*)] <= 0. Moreover, X* identifies a particular subprobability measure P* via the density dP*/dQ = 1/X*. As a result, X* can be seen as a generalized likelihood ratio of Q against P. We show that P* coincides with the reverse information projection (RIPr) when additional assumptions are made that are required for the latter to exist. Thus, P* is a natural definition of the RIPr in the absence of any assumptions on P or Q. In addition to the abstract theory, we provide several tools for finding the numeraire and RIPr in concrete cases. We discuss several nonparametric examples where we can indeed identify the numeraire and RIPr, despite not having a reference measure. Our results have interpretations outside of testing in that they yield the optimal Kelly bet against P if we believe reality follows Q. We end with a more general optimality theory that goes beyond the ubiquitous logarithmic utility. We focus on certain power utilities, leading to reverse R & eacute;nyi projections in place of the RIPr, which also always exist.