Multitype randomized Reed-Frost epidemics and epidemics upon random graphs

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Neal, Peter
• 署名单位: University of Manchester
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF APPLIED PROBABILITY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1050-5164
• DOI: 10.1214/105051606000000123
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 1166-1189
• 关键词: final-size distribution; LIMIT-THEOREMS; sir epidemics; MODEL; population; severity

摘要

We consider a multitype epidemic model which is a natural extension of the randomized Reed-Frost epidemic model. The main result is the derivation of an asymptotic Gaussian limit theorem for the final size of the epidemic. The method of proof is simpler, and more direct, than is used for similar results elsewhere in the epidemics literature. In particular, the results are specialized to epidemics upon extensions of the Bernoulli random graph.