ON THE ADJUSTMENT COEFFICIENT, DRAWDOWNS AND LUNDBERG-TYPE BOUNDS FOR RANDOM WALK

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Meilijson, Isaac
• 署名单位: Tel Aviv University
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF APPLIED PROBABILITY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1050-5164
• DOI: 10.1214/08-AAP567
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 1015-1025
• 关键词: theorem

摘要

Consider a random walk whose (light-tailed) increments have positive mean. Lower and upper bounds are provided for the expected maximal value of the random walk until it experiences a given drawdown d. These bounds, related to the Calmar ratio in finance, are of the form (exp{alpha d}-1)/alpha and (K exp{alpha d}-1)/alpha for some K > 1, in terms of the adjustment coefficient alpha (E[exp{-alpha X}] = 1) of the insurance risk literature. Its inverse 1/alpha has been recently derived by Aumann and Serrano as an index of riskiness of the random variable X. This article also complements the Lundberg exponential stochastic upper bound and the Cramer-Lundberg approximation for the expected minimum of the random walk, with an exponential stochastic lower bound. The tail probability bounds are of the form C exp{-alpha x} and exp{-alpha x}, respectively, for some 1/K < 1. Our treatment of the problem involves Skorokhod embeddings of random walks in martingales, especially via the Azema-Yor and Dubins stopping times, adapted from standard Brownian motion to exponential martingales.