QUICKEST DETECTION PROBLEMS FOR BESSEL PROCESSES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Johnson, Peter; Peskir, Goran
• 署名单位: University of Manchester
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF APPLIED PROBABILITY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1050-5164
• DOI: 10.1214/16-AAP1223
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1003-1056
• 关键词: disorder problem; EQUATIONS

摘要

Consider the motion of a Brownian particle that initially takes place in a two-dimensional plane and then after some random/unobservable time continues in the three-dimensional space. Given that only the distance of the particle to the origin is being observed, the problem is to detect the time at which the particle departs from the plane as accurately as possible. We solve this problem in the most uncertain scenario when the random/unobservable time is (i) exponentially distributed and (ii) independent from the initial motion of the particle in the plane. The solution is expressed in terms of a stopping time that minimises the probability of a false early detection and the expected delay of a missed late detection.