On the efficiency of selection criteria in spline regression

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kou, SC
• 署名单位: Harvard University
• 刊物名称: PROBABILITY THEORY AND RELATED FIELDS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0178-8051
• DOI: 10.1007/s00440-003-0277-z
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 153-176
• 关键词: generalized cross-validation; smoothing noisy data; Asymptotic Optimality; maximum-likelihood; parameter; CONVERGENCE; CHOICE; rates; cl

摘要

This paper concerns the cubic smoothing spline approach to nonparametric regression. After first deriving sharp asymptotic formulas for the eigenvalues of the smoothing matrix, the paper uses these formulas to investigate the efficiency of different selection criteria for choosing the smoothing parameter. Special attention is paid to the generalized maximum likelihood (GML), C-P and extended exponential (EE) criteria and their marginal Bayesian interpretation. It is shown that (a) when the Bayesian model that motivates GML is true, using CP to estimate the smoothing parameter would result in a loss of efficiency with a factor of 10/3, proving and strengthening a conjecture proposed in Stein (1990); (b) when the data indeed come from the C-p density, using GML would result in a loss of efficiency of infinity; (c) the loss of efficiency of the EE criterion is at most 1.543 when the data are sampled from its consistent density family. The paper not only studies equally spaced observations (the setting of Stein, 1990), but also investigates general sampling scheme of the design points, and shows that the efficiency results remain the same in both cases.