The Impact of Parties and Elections on Municipal Debt Policy in Mexico

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lucinda Benton, Allyson; Smith, Heidi Jane M.
• 署名单位: Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas A.C. (CIDE); Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
• 刊物名称: GOVERNANCE-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF POLICY ADMINISTRATION AND INSTITUTIONS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0952-1895
• DOI: 10.1111/gove.12234
• 发表日期: 2017
• 关键词: POLITICAL-ECONOMY; mayoral quality; performance

摘要

Opportunistic electoral fiscal policy cycle theory suggests that all subnational officials will raise fiscal spending during elections. Ideological partisan fiscal policy cycle theory suggests that only left-leaning governments will raise election year fiscal spending, with right-leaning parties choosing the reverse. This article assesses which of these competing logics applies to debt policy choices. Cross-sectional time-series analysis of yearly loan acquisition across Mexican municipalitieson statistically matched municipal subsamples to balance creditworthiness across left- and right-leaning governmentsshows that all parties engage in electoral policy cycles but not in the way originally thought. It also shows that different parties favored different types of loans, although not always according to partisan predictions. Both electoral and partisan logics thus shape debt policy decisionsin contrast to fiscal policy where these logics are mutually exclusivebecause debt policy involves decisions on multiple dimensions, about the total and type of loans.