What happens to growth when a long-term political leader leaves office?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kolstad, Ivar
• 署名单位: Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
• 刊物名称: GOVERNANCE-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF POLICY ADMINISTRATION AND INSTITUTIONS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0952-1895
• DOI: 10.1111/gove.12533
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: oil; WORLD; POWER

摘要

We analyze the economic performance of countries after a multi-decade political ruler, defined as having been in office 20 or more years, loses power. For 37 countries experiencing such an end-of-reign event in the period 1971-2005, we use an event study approach to compare growth in the decade following the event with growth in pre-event periods. The results show that event countries have below average growth in the year a long-term political leader leaves office and that cumulative growth in the ensuing decade at best matches and at worst falls significantly short of pre-event growth levels. Growth contractions are no different following irregular transitions than after regular transitions, suggesting our results are not explained by inadvertent post-reign turmoil. Our results instead suggest that post-event contractions may be shaped by deliberate efforts by long-term leaders to concentrate power while in office and poison the post-reign economic or political environment.